The Lower Thames Crossing is probably happening but it isn't certain yet
Plus Kent devolution deal delays, Tesco gets licence for Gillingham store, Medway by-elections this week, news in brief, and more
Like all big projects, the Lower Thames Crossing has been controversial as it lumbered through the UK’s torturous planning system. Last week, word came that it might finally be happening, but are things as straightforward as that? Further down, we have news on potential delays to Kent and Medway’s devolution plans, Tesco getting a licence for a new Gillingham store, notes on this week’s by-elections, news in brief, and more.
The Lower Thames Crossing is probably happening but it isn’t certain yet
If you follow local news and politicians, there’s a good chance that at some point over the past week, you read that the £9bn Lower Thames Crossing to connect north Kent and Essex was finally happening.
Indeed, Rochester and Strood MP Lauren Edwards was particularly effusive on the matter, writing on BlueSky that the project had been approved and that she welcomed the announcement:
The only problem in this is that Chancellor Rachel Reeves didn’t actually say that at all.
Going back to her speech of 29 January, formatted in the exact style the government publishes speeches in, she said the following:
We will work with the private sector to deliver the infrastructure that our country desperately needs.
This includes the Lower Thames Crossing, which will improve connectivity at Port of Tilbury and Dover, London Gateway and Medway…
… alleviating severe congestion…
… as goods destined for export come from the North, and the Midlands and across the country to markets overseas.
To drive growth and deliver value for money for taxpayers, we are exploring options to privately finance this important project.
Now, that by no means suggests she is against the scheme. In fact, quite the opposite. It is clear that following years of arguments, the government is behind it happening.
But there is a big difference between being behind something and actually delivering it.
A press release by National Highways is enthusiastic about Reeves’ speech, but stops short of saying that the project will actually be delivered. Instead, it talks about the ‘government’s commitment’ to the scheme.
Crucially, the statement ends with the line that ‘The Lower Thames Crossing Development Consent Order is due to be determined by 23rd May.’
This feels more aligned with the reality of the situation. A decision on the project was originally meant to be made last Autumn, but was pushed back to the aforementioned May 2025 date.
So the government support the principle of the scheme, but need private investment as they don’t want to fund it themselves, and haven’t yet given it planning permission. Quite how this translates to ‘Lower Thames Crossing approved!’ is lost on us, but perhaps this is why we aren’t politicians.
The Lower Thames Crossing is another large scale failure of the UK to build infrastructure. It’s been on the table for decades, with a preferred route chosen in 2017 and a planning application submitted in 2020. Even the most optimistic scenario says it will take until 2032 to be open, and when was the last time a project of this scale was delivered on schedule?
In the meantime, the Dartford Crossing continues to run grossly over capacity, leading to wildly unpredictable journey times between Kent and Essex that can take a few minutes on one day or hours the next. The lack of crossing capacity is holding back both sides of the river economically, and while a new road tunnel isn’t necessarily the ideal solution, it’s the one that is available. The LTC creating a significant new route just west of Medway would dramatically reshape the economic geography of our towns, massively reducing journey times to places that are just across the river, but feel far more distant because of the difficulty in reaching them.
It does seem likely that this government will get on and deliver the crossing, even if we aren’t quite over the line yet. We’re still likely to be sitting in traffic at Dartford for the best part of another decade yet.
Devo delay
After the government attempted to railroad local councils across the country into devolution deals as first as possible, it is ironic that the first delay in the process is as a result of Westminster.
Medway Council and Kent County Council had to rush their bid for a combined mayoral authority into the government earlier in January, with Kent County Council holding two large meetings on the issue the day before the deadline.
The belief was that the government would inform them whether or not their bid was successful by the end of last week, but instead, an unspecified delay has held up the proceedings.
Jim McMahon, the Minister of State overseeing the project, wrote to both council leaders last week, getting off to a great start by misspelling the name of KCC leader Roger Gough:
Dear Rodger and Vince,
Thank you for your letter of 10 January expressing your interest in joining the Devolution Priority Programme and to delivering both reorganisation and devolution to the most rapid timeframe.
I am grateful for your enthusiasm in responding to our ambitious plans, and I would like to thank you particularly for the rapid work you have done to bring together this proposal in order to meet the challenging deadline. I do not underestimate, and thoroughly appreciate, the collaborative work you have shown in producing this expression of interest.
I am working with my officials to review your proposal in detail, and I will be in touch with my decision as soon as is practically possible.
Thank you again for writing to me on this important matter.
Yours sincerely,
Jim McMahon OBE MP
Minister of State for Local Government and English Devolution
It is unclear exactly when the government will get around to make a decision, but given an elected mayor for Kent and Medway would be voted on in just 15 months, one would hope that it doesn’t take too long.
While a brief delay for Medway isn’t necessarily a big issue, it does present an extra uncertainty for Kent County Council, who are supposed to be holding elections three months from now. As part of the devolution bid, Cllr Gough had requested that the elections be postponed for a year to allow a focus on the devolution work.
As a result, KCC is now in something of a Schoedinger’s election scenario. All parties need to act as if elections are happening in May, even though they almost certainly won’t be.
Tesco gets a licence for new Gillingham store
We recently wrote about Tesco withdrawing their licence application for a new store in Rochester after some residents objected (while also admitting they’d use the store themselves).
At the start time, Tesco had submitted an application for a new Express store in Napier Road, Gillingham. A grand total of three residents next to the abandoned industrial unit where Tesco wanted to open the store objected for various reasons, from alcohol sales to antisocial behaviour to litter to the risk that customers might park across their driveway.
Much like the planning system, licensing gives far more weight to a tiny number of people who raise an issue. As a result, Medway Council held a Licensing Hearing Panel today to assess the application.
Representatives of Tesco dominated the meeting, mostly because none of the objectors turned up to make their case in person. Following the best part of two hours, it was concluded that the store could indeed open, albeit with the most minor of amendments: Whereas Tesco applied for a licence application from 6am to midnight, the panel decided to give them a licence for 7am to 11pm.
At no point was there any explanation of why Tesco being able to sell alcohol at 7am was materially better than 6am, with the whole thing feeling like an exercise of ‘Well, we’re here, so we have to do something.’
Three councillors, multiple council officers, and Tesco’s legal representatives all had to spend a few hours huddled over tables in Gun Wharf, all so one hour could be shaved off each end of the licence. The outcome will likely please no one, but the panel's decision has been handed down.
Still, at least Tesco knows that knocking a couple of hours off from their Rochester store application will likely get it approved. Once everyone has done the little dance of political theatre once again, anyway.
Medway by-elections this week
Voters will go to the polls in two Medway wards on Thursday (6 Feb) to elect new councillors following the resignations of three Medway councillors who became MPs in July.
As a result, one seat is available in Gillingham South, and two seats are available in Rochester East & Warren Wood.
18 candidates are fighting over the seats. We covered each of them a few weeks ago, and our election data correspondent Alan Collins analysed each of their chances.
On paper, each seat should be retained by Labour, but by-elections are notoriously tricky things, and national polling currently has the same vibe as tossing a dice and hoping for the best.
Labour can afford to lose one of the three seats, but any more than that would see them lose their majority on Medway Council. In reality, this likely wouldn’t mean much. Two independent councillors, Cllr Shokar and Cllr Hubbard, are currently suspended from the Labour Party but still likely vote with the administration when required.
Labour might be feeling a little nervous about their position and have been taking out large teams to both wards repeatedly during the campaign. After an active start, the Conservatives seem to have lost some of their momentum on the ground. Reform seems to be a little more lively in Rochester East & Warren Wood, while the Lib Dems are the opposite, throwing all of their (limited) resources at Gillingham. The Greens have done some token campaigning in Gillingham, and the SDP have supposedly done the same. The Heritage Party are also on the ballot paper.
We’ll be at Gun Wharf Medway Park for the election count on Thursday night and will post results to our Substack Chat for paid subscribers. After that, we’ll likely include a brief note on the results in our Friday edition, with full analysis next Tuesday.
Some notes for voters in Gillingham South and Rochester East & Warren Wood:
Polling stations will be open between 7am and 10pm.
If you have received your polling card, you should know where you need to go to cast your ballot. If you are registered to vote but haven’t received your polling card, you do not need it to vote. Go to your polling station, confirm your name and address, and you will be allowed to vote, so long as you have an accepted form of photo ID. All voters will need to bring a form of photo ID in this election regardless.
If you don't know your polling station, you can visit the Where Do I Vote? website, enter your postcode, and, for lack of a better term, they will tell you where to go.
If you have a postal vote but did not remember to return it in time, you can drop it off at any polling station in your constituency until the polls close at 10pm. You do not need a photo ID to do this, but you must fill out a form when doing so.
If you have not received your postal vote ballot papers, you should contact Medway Council on 01634 332030 to arrange a replacement ballot paper, which you will have to collect from Gun Wharf.
If you were due to vote in a polling station today but can not make it due to a work or medical emergency or have lost your ID, you can call Medway Council on 01634 332030 to arrange an emergency proxy vote. You can do this until 5pm on election day.
You may find people outside your polling station asking to see your polling card. These people are activists for political parties, and you absolutely do not have to engage with them.
In brief
🏥 The Chief Executive of Medway NHS Foundation Trust, Jayne Black, will exit the role to take up another position closer to home. Black took up the role in 2022.
🏗️ An application has been submitted to demolish the former Go Outdoors and Market Hall sites at the end of Chatham High Street. If approved, work would begin later this month and take around three months.
The former Natwest building in Strood could be converted into an off-licence and five flats. It has been empty since the bank left last year.
💷 KentOnline has claimed that the University of Kent is paying £7,000 rent for the space that previously housed Cargo bar in Gillingham. The university is believed to be still paying the lease on the venue, which closed in 2019.
🖥️ Chatham and Aylesford MP Tristan Osborne now has a Substack. So far, he doesn’t appear to be recommending Local Authority, unlike some other politicians on the platform.
🍔 McDonald’s is moving forward with their plan to open at Chatham Dockside. New plans show the scale of the outlet at Dockside Outlet Centre, including the giant golden arches that will be placed on the building.
Footnotes
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Music that soundtracked the creation of this edition: Belong by The Pains of Being Pure at Heart, Mysteries by Tigercats, and Fortitude Valley by Fortitude Valley.
Interestingly no polling cards here in South Gillingham…thanks for the heads up for Thursday.
Hey, the count for the by-elections is at Medway Park this time not Gun Wharf. Be good to see you both at the count. 😊