A perfect storm gathers over the Cuxton, Halling & Riverside by-election

Tomorrow, voters in Cuxton, Halling & Riverside will choose a successor to the late Conservative councillor Phil Filmer. The Conservatives won both seats when the current ward was first contested in 2023, but this by-election arrives in a very different political climate. In this guest analysis, Medway Elects founder Alan Collins explores whether Green momentum and Reform UK’s impact on the Conservative vote could turn an apparently safe hold into Medway’s next electoral upset...

Tomorrow, voters in Cuxton, Halling & Riverside will head to the polls to elect a successor to the late councillor Phil Filmer. On paper, it should be a fairly safe Conservative hold in a ward which has been long-held by the party. However, looking deeply into the rapidly fragmenting political landscape across Kent and Medway, this race is shaping up to be a battle involving the insurgent forces currently rewriting the rules of local elections.

It is therefore important to explore how recent electoral shockwaves in Cliftonville, Tunbridge Wells, and elsewhere in Medway have altered expectations. The traditional two-party system is breaking down, setting the stage for a potential political earthquake in the ward.

A History of Cuxton and Halling (and Riverside)

To understand the upcoming by-election, we must first look at the history of the ward itself. While recent memory might paint the Cuxton and Halling area as an impenetrable fortress of Conservative dominance, its deeper electoral history reveals a community that has been willing to vote for other parties.

When the area was first established as a three-member ward in 1973, the electorate actually favoured Labour, with the Conservatives coming fourth behind an independent candidate and the Liberals. The political winds shifted quickly, and in 1976, the Conservatives gained all three seats on a 10% swing.

For nearly two decades, the Conservatives maintained a grip on the area across subsequent boundary changes, with their lowest vote share during the period being 50.2%. However, the ward was not immune from the Conservative wipeout in 1995, a spectacular 25.9% swing to Labour handing both seats to the opposition with a 60.6% vote share - higher than the Conservatives had ever managed. When the first elections to Medway Council were held in 1997, Labour took both seats on the new authority, albeit with a lower 49.2% vote share.

The modern era of Conservative dominance returned in 2000, when Anthony Cawte and Jane Etheridge regained the ward on a 16.5% swing. This marked the beginning of 23 years of dominance for the Tories, solidified during the single-member ward era by Ray Maisey (2003–2015) and his successor Matt Fearn (2015–2023). During that period, their vote share peaked at 63.4% and never fell below 50%.

The ‘Riverside’ element of the ward was carved out of part of the former Strood South ward, specifically (and unsurprisingly), the eastern part of the ward bordered by the River Medway. Within the old ward as a whole, the Conservatives had a narrower hold between 2003 and 2023, polling as low as 30.5% in 2019 (while still taking all three seats). They were beaten to first place by Labour in 2003, and by Ukip in 2015, but despite Labour winning a seat in 2003 and 2011, and Ukip winning two seats in 2015, the Tories had won at least one seat in every election under those boundaries.

Prior to 2003, the area formed part of Temple Farm on both Medway Council and Rochester-upon-Medway City Council. In the Medway Council years, Labour won both elections and held all three seats, while before the birth of the unitary authority, the Conservatives only came out on top in 1987 and were pushed back to second, retaining just one of the three seats they had won in the previous election, in 1991. Labour had otherwise kept a tight grip on the ward.

When the newly drawn, two-member Cuxton, Halling & Riverside ward was contested for the first time in 2023, the Conservatives therefore expected to take both seats with ease, and indeed Matt Fearn and Phil Filmer were elected for the party.

Yet, the 2023 election also showed the first cracks in the Tories’ newly-enlarged fortress. The Green Party, who had first stood in Cuxton and Halling in 2019 and came last on 10.2%, came knocking very loudly on the Conservatives’ door. The party came second, polling an impressive 31.9% and even coming within 44 votes of securing their first councillor in Medway. That makes the Greens’ Trish Marchant an immediate threat to the Conservatives’ hold on the ward.